Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,810$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,531.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,531.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,713$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,442.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,442.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,326$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $307,682$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,775.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298,775.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,011$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,944.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,944.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $263,341$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $246,752$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,556.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,556.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,325$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(8.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,315.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,315.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,051$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,833$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232,321.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,675$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(8.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,546.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,546.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,573$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,837$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,468.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,161$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(774 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,008.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,008.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,676$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,804$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,211.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(187,211.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,723$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,673.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,673.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,086$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,930$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,226.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,226.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,114$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,986.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,986.9\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,630$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,391$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(5.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,994.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,994.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,720$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(338 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,669.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,669.9\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $973$ on 2020-06-23