Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,810$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,531.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,531.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,713$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,442.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,442.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,326$ on 2020-06-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $307,682$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,775.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298,775.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,011$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,944.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,944.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $263,341$ on 2020-06-23

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $246,752$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,556.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,556.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,325$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(8.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,315.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27,315.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,051$ on 2020-06-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,833$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232,321.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,675$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(8.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,546.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,546.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,573$ on 2020-06-23

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,837$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,468.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,161$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(774 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,008.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,008.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,676$ on 2020-06-23

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,804$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,211.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(187,211.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,723$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,673.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,673.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,086$ on 2020-06-23

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,930$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,226.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,226.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,114$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,986.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,986.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,630$ on 2020-06-23

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,391$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(5.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,994.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,994.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,720$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(338 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,669.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,669.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $973$ on 2020-06-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 90%
Italy recovered 82%
Lithuania recovered 77%
Hungary recovered 55%
Portugal recovered 49%
Belarus recovered 20%
Poland recovered 6%
Russia recovered 4%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,982$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,865.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,865.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(67.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $142$ on 2020-06-23

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,803$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(573 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,657.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,657.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $77$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(18.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(76.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243$ on 2020-06-23

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,107$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(895 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,008.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,008.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $573$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(99.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{556.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(556.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $934$ on 2020-06-23

Portugal⮸

Population $10,196,709$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,737$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,448.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(35,448.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,540$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(378 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,491.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,491.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,368$ on 2020-06-23